The Indian rupee has been on a downward spiral, hitting an all-time low as the Iran war drags on, causing a surge in oil prices and disrupting energy supplies. This has led to a weakening trajectory for the currency, with analysts predicting further falls if the conflict persists. The rupee dropped to 92.4325 per dollar on Friday, surpassing its previous all-time low, and has lost 1.5% since the war began. The central bank's intervention has limited excessive volatility, but investors are still bracing for a prolonged conflict. The Middle East war has triggered foreign investor selling of Indian equities, compounding the rupee's woes. Economists and analysts predict the rupee will remain under pressure in the near term, with oil prices around $100 per barrel expected to weaken the currency to about 95.50 by the end of the year. In a left tail risk scenario, oil sustaining at $120/bbl could make USD/INR at 97.50 achievable. HDFC Bank expects the rupee to trade in a 92-95 range if the conflict persists, while QuantEco Research is more pessimistic, forecasting the currency to weaken to 98.5 by the end of March 2027 under a $100-per-barrel oil scenario. Oil prices at $80 per barrel could cap the rupee's weakness around 93.50 through the end of 2026. This situation raises a deeper question: How will India's economy and currency fare in the face of prolonged global conflicts and energy supply disruptions? What measures can the government and central bank take to mitigate the impact on the rupee and the economy? These are questions that need to be addressed as the world grapples with the ongoing Iran war and its far-reaching consequences.
